MAY 28, 2010 -- Gubernatorial candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley (R-Lexington) continues to confound and amaze.
Written off by many at the beginning of the political season as a marginal candidate riding the increasingly shortened coattails of Gov. Mark Sanford, Haley has surged into the lead in the campaign to win the GOP primary, which will be held in 11 days.
Last week, Haley’s campaign shocked the state’s political world when polls showed she leap-frogged the two presumed frontrunners, Attorney General Henry McMaster and Congressman Gresham Barrett, and opened up a nearly 10-percentage point lead.
This week, despite a growing web of intrigue surrounding her personal life, she has extended that lead, according to a new InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report poll of more than 1,100 voters.
After Haley surged into the lead last week, a former Sanford spokesperson, Will Folks, who now runs one of the state’s most popular political blogs, voluntarily confirmed rumors that he and the married candidate had an “inappropriate physical relationship” in recent years.
Instead of immediately damaging her candidacy, Haley’s lead held, according to the InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report poll taken Tuesday night after the affair allegations made headlines Tuesday morning.
According to the poll, 31.3 percent of voters who said they would vote in the GOP primary said they would vote for Haley if the election were held today. By contrast, McMaster, who had been leading until this month, flip-flopped with Haley, sinking to fourth and 13.8 percent.
The other big surprise in the governor’s race was Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, whose campaign has been marred by the “poor people = stray dogs” controversy, rising in the poll to second place at 20.7 percent. Barrett was nestled in third at 14.1 percent.
In the Democratic race, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen of Kershaw garnered 26.3 percent, followed by state Superintendent of Education Jim Rex at 17.2 percent. State Sen. Robert Ford of Charleston was in last at 12.4 percent. It could be argued that “nobody” is well in the lead in this primary race as 44.2 percent of those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary responded that didn’t know who they’d vote for.
Independents may force outcome
Mixed results on direction, leadership InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report also asked South Carolinians about their views related to state leadership. Compared to results from our December poll, just over half (50.2 percent) of South Carolinians think the state is moving in the wrong direction. One fourth said it was heading in the right direction. Another quarter said they had no opinion. In December, 39 percent said the state was moving in the wrong direction, as highlighted by the neighboring chart. In two questions seeking to understand what people think about the legislature in general and their own legislators in particular, South Carolinians mirror a national trend – they tend to like the job their own legislators are doing, but are less confident about the full assembly. South Carolinians, however, are pretty skeptical as a whole about the General Assembly. Almost half of respondents (49.5 percent) rated state legislators as a whole as below average or failing. Interestingly, just over a third (34.4 percent) said state legislators for their district were below average or failing. At the other end of the spectrum, 26.8 percent graded their particular legislators as outstanding or good, compared to 15.4 percent of respondents who rated all legislators as outstanding or good. -- Andy Brack |
Reading between the lines of the total results, which asked a slew of questions, two of the state’s leading political scientists see South Carolina’s politically independent streak looming large in the primaries.
Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University who specializes in political polling, said that the 30 percent of poll respondents who identified themselves as “independent” will likely vote Republican, based on historical information. As a result, the independents will have a bigger effect in electing Republican candidates.
Ashley Woodiwiss, a political scientist at Erskine College, pointed out that presently, “Nikki Haley leads among the independents, but their turnout and ultimate vote may tilt the outcome of this year's fascinating GOP gubernatorial race.”
Allegations may have future impact
Huffmon said the InsiderAdvantage/ Statehouse Report poll may have come too early to accurately gauge the complete effect that the adultery allegations will have on Haley’s campaign. Once the story is fully sunk into the minds of voters, Huffmon said, it may be a different story.
Huffmon added as the story continues to drag out in dribs and drabs, and if no real substantive evidence emerges of an affair, then he expected Haley to benefit from voter backlash, as voters could then become convinced that Haley was the victim.
Woodiwiss was surprised that her political relationship with Sanford, being a lock-step Libertarian who touted their shared political agenda until news of his wanderings were confirmed, hasn’t hurt Haley in the polls.
“There is a sense of incredulity that a Sanford protégé would have been able to lurch up so far in the polls and be positioned so well in the final weeks of the primary campaign despite the taint of being Sanford’s hand-picked heir apparent,” said Woodiwiss, who considers much of Sanford’s reign to be ineffective.
Woodiwiss said support for Haley could be seen as an anti-establishment vote since there is such frustration among rank and file Republicans with lack of party leadership. As evidence, Woodiwiss offered Barrett’s win at the tony Silver Elephant dinner earlier this year. “But it’s not the Republicans in Columbia who are voting for Haley.”
“In an ordinary year, she would have already been out of here,” said Woodiwiss, “but in this extraordinary year, she is able to stick around and confound and amaze.”
Both Huffmon and Woodiwiss see problems for Haley winning the general election in November over a candidate like Sheheen. Huffmon sees problems because, like her endorser Sarah Palin, Haley is a very polarizing candidate; Woodiwiss because her anti-tax positions don’t jibe with the reality of an expected $1 billion shortfall in next year’s state budget.
GOP lieutenant governor’s race wide open
In the lieutenant governor’s GOP primary race to fill Bauer’s soon-to-be former office, there has been a similar changing of the guard, according to Woodiwiss.
“Meanwhile in the lieutenant governor race, the same month that has seen Gresham Barrett's fortunes slip has seen a similar fate attend Ken Ard, who also won (quite handily) the straw poll at Columbia's banquet,” said Woodiwiss. “Now, a month later, Larry Richter who managed less than 10 percent support at that event, now leads.”
In that race, Richter polled 16.4 percent, Ard 13.7 percent, Bill Connor 11.3 percent, and Eleanor Kitzman was in dead last at 5.1 percent.
But in this GOP primary, the majority of likely GOP voters apparently haven’t made up their minds, as a whopping 53.6 percent -- close to three-and-a-half times as many who supported the leading Richter -- said this week that had no opinion on who’d they vote for if the primary was held that day.
So, to beat a dead horse with a coined phrase, it’s anybody’s race.
Crystal ball: Voter dissatisfaction seems to be driving much of the GOP primary race for governor, whereas voter apathy may be the driving force for Democratic voters. How Haley’s alleged affair unfolds could decide who the GOP candidate will be and perhaps by extension who the next governor will be in this state. But if it came down to a Haley-Sheheen contest, it would be historic, as it would be the first time the two candidates for the top job in the state would be of Indian and Lebanese descent, Haley and Sheheen respectively.