DEC. 24. 2009 -- Like layers of an onion being cut by a knife, the opinions of the people of South Carolina are coming into crisper view. Or is it a “crankier” view?

Nearly two of every five of the 770 registered South Carolina voters contacted in a Dec. 15 InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report poll said they felt the state was headed in the “wrong direction.”

Not surprisingly, more Democratic respondents, the state’s opposition party, were critical than their counterparts in the Republican Party. Nearly 52 percent of Democrats, compared to 34 percent of Republicans, felt the state was headed in the wrong direction.

Those aged 30 to 44, who still have higher-earning years ahead of them, were the most worried. Nearly 46 percent said they thought the state was headed in wrong direction, regardless of party affiliation.

Ashley Woodiwiss, a political science professor at Erskine College, said considering the state‘s current political and economic context, the poll had some “remarkable” findings, particularly “in the face of the political crisis precipitated by our governor's national scandal and with some of the worst economic conditions in this state since the Great Depression.”

He said for only 39 percent of those polled to say the state was headed in the wrong direction meant 60 percent seemed at least content. 

“A full 60 percent either have no opinion -- 29 percent -- or, more staggeringly, believe South Carolina is actually heading in the right direction -- 32 percent . This is truly remarkable indeed.”

Reading between the poll’s lines, Woodiwiss said public opinion had changed little on major issues -- jobs, education and more.  He said that wouldn‘t have concerned him had 2009 been a “normal“ year.

“And yet all the objective evidence around us -- unemployment, education, even more budget cuts, et cetera -- indicates that these are not normal times,” said Woodiwiss. “Rather, we may well be in a state of political and economic crisis. But apparently for most South Carolinians, despite this evidence, all seems, well, good enough.”

With just over half of self-described Democrats responding that the state is going in the wrong direction, “with even the most generous interpretive allowance given, what this question captures is that for most of our fellow citizens, there is not a great deal of serious disaffection with the state of our state,” he said.

Jeri Cabot, a political scientist at the College of Charleston, said she was amazed that nearly 30 percent of those polled had “no opinion” for the direction of the state.

Cabot said that this portion of the poll might show that South Carolinians are confused about who should be blamed for the state’s current situation, and that many might have settled on the state’s economic woes being the federal government’s fault.

A Haley of a surprise

The biggest winner of the poll seemed to be gubernatorial candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley (R-Lexington) -- if coming in third among GOP candidates can be considered a “win.”

Yes, Haley only received the nod from 13 percent of registered voters who said they would cast ballots in the GOP primary next year. But after the tumultuous fall from grace of Gov. Mark Sanford, with whom she had sided with on House battles and in the tone of her early campaign, 10 points short of the overall lead may be considered impressive. Furthermore, she polled ahead of Congressman Gresham Barrett. His fourth-place  showing is sure to shock some in the business community who have seen him as the best GOP candidate in the race.

That state Attorney General Henry McMaster was tied for the overall lead at 22 percent may not surprise some.  What was surprising was that it took independents and the 65-plus age group of voters to bring him into an overall tie with Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who, ironically, runs the state’s Office on Aging and has been courting the silver-haired crowd heavily.

Among those polled who identified themselves as Republicans, Bauer beat McMaster 24-21 percent. Bauer also cleaned up with the 18-29 year olds (53 percent), while Barrett’s best showing was tied for second in the 45-64 age group, with 12.5 percent.

 

Rex, Drake on Democratic side     

Voters for the Democratic primary seemed to be suffering from a bout of indecision or plain lack of information. When asked which candidate they would vote for if the Democratic primary were held today, more said they had “no opinion” -- 44 percent -- than those that said they would vote for the top four party candidates.     

And, considering the poll had a 3.4-percent margin of error, more Democrats seem to be on the fence than have picked a side.        

State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex, perhaps buoyed by statewide name recognition, led the pack with 21 percent overall, and 16.6 percent within self-identified Democrats polled.   In second place was attorney/lobbyist Dwight Drake who was tied with Rex among Dems at 16.6 percent, and second overall with 15 percent. Coming in third was state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, D-Kershaw, with 8 percent. 

Cabot expressed surprise that more female voters hadn’t abandoned the GOP for the Democratic slate considering Gov. Mark Sanford’s much-reported philandering.

 

Crystal ball:  Conventional wisdom is that early polling in gubernatorial races is heavily influenced by name recognition -- Bauer, McMaster and Rex all hold statewide offices -- and that the quality of candidate and money are more influential later in the race. Regardless, whoever wins the governor’s race will have a significant chunk of the South Carolinians thinking that the state is headed in the wrong direction. 

There are no scheduled legislative meetings until after the new year.  In related meetings, the South Carolina Deferred Compensation Commission will meet Dec. 29 at 10 a.m. in the second-floor conference room at the South Carolina Retirement Systems Building, 202 Arbor Lake Drive, Columbia.

DEC. 24, 2009 -- For South Carolina to get out of the cellar on several generational problems – low education levels, poverty, high unemployment and more – its leaders need to make a sustained commitment to improving higher education dramatically, two state higher education leaders say.

“You’re really rolling the ball uphill if you have to convince the public about the value of higher education,” said Columbia lawyer Ken Wingate, chair of the state Commission on Higher Education.

Wingate and the CHE’s executive director, Dr. Garrison Walter, have been speaking to civic clubs and the media across the state to highlight an “action plan” that seeks to push South Carolina forward economically. (See the plan online.)

Walter said the Palmetto State needs to focus more on the growing knowledge economy, which means an increased emphasis on higher education. If more South Carolinians have college degrees, they’ll earn more money.  

“We have a lack of public priority focus and a lack of public focus on higher education.” he said. “Our state is far behind economically and we’re not catching up.”

For example, per capita income and the state’s rank in the number of people with bachelor’s degrees is about the same in 2006 as it was in 1990. Additionally, South Carolina’s public colleges and universities rank 15th out of 16 Southern states in the per student average in money that comes from state sources. In the current state budget, funding is down $203 million from two years earlier to $555 million.

Wingate said CHE has a strategy to make higher education a public priority for South Carolina. Three goals include:

• Raise education levels. About 22 percent of S.C. adults have at least a bachelor’s degree. The goal is to have 30 percent by 2030 – a so-called 30-by-30 goal.
  
  
•  Increase research and innovation. By creating new pathways to learning and technology, the state will create more of a culture of discovery, which should increase personal income.
  
  
• Improve workforce training and educational services. Such a goal would align educational programs with important state clusters and connect adults with higher education in more flexible ways.

Wingate said several of the priority recommendations would cost little or no money. Examples: Enacting “regulatory relief” to allow colleges and universities to cut red tape from hiring, procurement and facility enhancement; strengthening ties between technical colleges and universities; strengthening services to give more value; and creating a cost reduction committee to promote and share best practices among institutions.

Other measures would cost more, particularly increasing state funding and borrowing through the state’s bonding power. Other ideas: compulsory high school attendance through age 18; improving library funding; better marketing of college opportunities; and predictable capital funding streams.

At this point, it’s unclear how much an increased financial commitment to higher education will cost, Walter said.   The Commission is working with college presidents to develop a funding plan. 

But he said it likely will have two characteristics: restoring past budget cuts to increase higher education’s share of state funding and phasing in restorations due to the state’s economic situation. 

“We appreciate that the state has many needs and that many have suffered as a result of the current recession,” Walter said. “On the other hand, if the state doesn't invest in higher education soon, it will fall further behind the rest of the nation and be ever more vulnerable to economic downturns.”

Wingate said that instead of declining state financial support, colleges and universities “have got to find the political mettle to make higher education not only an add-on to the state budget but the key to economic prosperity,” Wingate said.

If higher education can become a state priority, studies show individuals will earn twice as much over their lifetimes, the state will add billions to its gross state product and South Carolina will generate almost 45,000 permanent jobs, Wingate added. 

“If people don’t believe education, including higher education, is important, we can’t possibly make the progress we need.”

So what will it be, Legislature? More of the same on the bottom or a cupful of courage to take a new path that invests in South Carolina’s people? The choice is obvious. Now it’s time to get to work.

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Depleted uranium. The first shipment of depleted uranium sent from the Savannah River Site has arrived in Utah is still radioactive and only stored there temporarily, but at least it’s out of our state.  More. 

Limehouse. State Transportation Secretary Buck Limehouse has prostate cancer, and will continue on in office while exploring options.   Here’s wishing to his recovery. More.

Dawson. He can’t lose any elections to Michael Steele at Forest Lakes Country Club.