A new study of heat and its impact in the eastern U.S. by researchers at Emory University and other institutions suggests "that numbers of heat wave–related deaths are likely to be an order of magnitude higher in 2057–2059 than in 2002–2004. ... Effective mitigation and adaptation measures will be crucial to reduce the potential for catastrophic outcomes, particularly in the most vulnerable geographic regions."

In other words, the weather of the future is going to get worse unless policymakers deal with greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

According to the research, there was a 40 percent chance of at least one heat wave in the eastern U.S. in 2002-2004 and it lasted an average of 3.4 days. Using modeling, the study projected two outcomes for the future:

• Reductions. Assuming moderate greenhouse gas emissions combined with a wide range of strategies and ways to reduce emissions, the study projected the Southern coast would have about two heat waves a year with an average of 1,400 heat-related deaths by 2057 to 2059.
  
  
• More of the same. But with the continued use of fossil-fuel intensive energy consumption, the study projected up to four heat waves a year for our region with an average of 3,556 heat-related deaths for the same period.

Study underscores urgency of action, some say

The new Emory study reflects the kind of data found in a 2013 report by the state Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The 101-page study, "Climate Change Impacts to Natural Resources in South Carolina," was conducted as part of the department's mission to be the steward of the state's natural resources, which DNR says pumps about $30 billion a year into the state and is responsible for about 230,000 jobs.

"Access to abundant recreational opportunities and natural assets play an important role in economic growth and quality of life at the local, regional and state levels, so protection and enhancement of our natural resources can and should be part of our overall economic development strategy," DNR Director Alvin Taylor wrote in the report's forward. "Any changes to our coastal environment could cause substantial economic consequences. Shoreline changes affect property uses, land values, tourism, and natural resources management as well as traditional uses such as hunting and fishing, timber management and agriculture."

The DNR report specifically found that "climate-related changes may adversely affect the environment in many ways, potentially disrupting or damaging ecological services, water supply, agriculture and forestry, fish and wildlife species and their habitats, endangered species and commercial and recreational fishing. One particular impact is sea-level rise and its effects on coastal areas. Rising sea level may amplify problems of coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and general disruptions to sensitive coastal and estuarine ecosystems."

In spite of several calls for more field studies, modeling, strategies, future research and more baseline data, the DNR report made virtually no recommendations for ways to reduce greenhouse gases to protect the state's natural resources -- even though the 2013 report recommended "policies and opportunities -- focus on grants, legislation, partnerships and strategic planning" as one core part of its climate change efforts.

When asked how legislators would get specific policy recommendations to deal with climate change, State Climatologist Hope Mizzell responded for DNR:

"Our agency will continue to focus on establishing baseline measurements through monitoring and data analyses in order to make well–informed natural resource management decisions, assessments and predictions of future environmental changes. We will continue to collaborate with colleges, universities, and other agencies on climate-related issues.  Specific examples of collaborative work include our ongoing involvement with coastal vulnerability studies, offshore energy development, landscape scale habitat protection and a five-year project to develop a new statewide water plan.  The output of these efforts will be available to be used to inform those who set policy for our state."

Alan Hancock, program coordinator for the Conservation Voters of South Carolina, said the DNR report did a pretty good job about laying out the science related to climate change in South Carolina, but more was needed.

"We need better, high-level coordination among all parts of state government," he said.

More leadership needed to translate science

A big step forward to deal with climate change, Hancock said, is an update of a 2008 report commissioned by the Sanford administration. The year before, Gov. Mark Sanford asked about 50 business, government, nonprofit and conservation leaders to develop specific policy recommendations on what could be done throughout the state to reduce greenhouse gases.

The group developed more recommendations [see the report here], but some have become outdated with new technology and research, Hancock added.

"We also need a larger, coordinated effort in South Carolina to address climate change and energy policy," he said. "Right now the efforts are happening, but they need executive-level leadership."

In other words, he said, Gov. Nikki Haley needs to get involved like Sanford did.

What's next

South Carolina currently does not have a coordinated state energy plan.

According to the S.C. Coastal Conservation League, "Our state’s leaders must prioritize creation of a comprehensive and pragmatic vision for the Palmetto State’s future. A South Carolina energy and climate policy can help ensure long-term economic competitiveness for our state by reducing polluting fuel imports, limiting energy expenses and protecting South Carolina’s unique natural resources.

"Such a policy can help develop under-utilized home-grown resources like energy efficiency and renewable energy, which reduce pollution while generating tens of thousands of high-quality jobs. By taking a leadership role on these issues, South Carolina can attract new industries and spur clean energy entrepreneurship throughout the state."

Fortunately to many, the federal government is requiring more energy planning as part of a recent Environmental Protection Agency mandate for clean power plans to reduce carbon pollution at power plants.

"It is going to require a state plan to do that," Hancock said. "We think South Carolina is well-positioned to meet the goals of that plan" through collaboration of power companies, conservation leaders and government leaders. State plans are due in 2016 with reduction targets met by 2030.

"That underscores our urgency in the need to act," he said. "The ways we can do that are increasing our solar power use in South Carolina and increased energy efficiency policies that will save people money on their power bills."

And as the new Emory heat study highlights, unless something is done sooner than later, it's likely that heat waves will get longer and more people will die from the heat.

Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report.  He can be reached at:  brack@statehousereport.com.

The state Procurement Review Panel will meet 10 a.m. July 21 (Blatt Building, Room 501) and 9:30 a.m. July 22 (Blatt 108) to discuss and consider two cases. The first meeting is a conference call.

Also next week, the special Senate oversight panel that has been looking into activities at the state Department of Social Services will meet 9 a.m. July 23 in Gressette 308. The meeting will be broadcast live on the Web.

According to WYFF TV, the New Empire Knights of the KKK will hold its first-ever "KKK Jam" on private property somewhere in Abbeville near its "national headquarters" on July 25 to July 27. Featured will be speakers, live music and a "Sunday Night Cross Lighting."

Just what South Carolina needs -- more hate, many wags observe.

But anti-Klan advocates will counter on July 26 with a Unity Rally Against Hate in Greenville at the Hughes Main Library in downtown Greenville from 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. Featured as keynote speaker at this event will be Lecia Brooks, outreach director for the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Pride of Greenville Men's Chorus.

The SPLC, which monitors hate groups around the country, reports South Carolina has 20 hate groups out of the more than 900 it keeps up with. The list includes three Klan organizations. More.

Ethics Commission ducks backward

Count us as among those who were surprised to learn that State Ethics Commission Chair James Burns put a gag order on all commission employees except the director from talking with the press.

“The point is not to squash openness at all or to not be transparent,” said the Columbia attorney told The State this week in what seemed to be the spin of spins.

An old political adage finds that if it walks and talks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

Hence the new directive is likely intended to "squash openness" by thwarting the ability of Deputy Director Cathy Hazelwood, who has been a primary conduit for information for the media, from being able to talk to the press. The directive puts the onus on Director Herb Hayden, who has not been prompt in answering questions by this publication in the past.

A new policy on comments by the agency will reportedly be discussed during the commission's September meeting.

Media attorney Jay Bender told The Post and Courier that Burns' directive was against the law because it was a change in policy without a motion, discussion or vote.

Don't be flummoxed.  We didn't either.  But all were governors of South Carolina in the Jim Crow era. 

South Carolina currently operates under the 1895 constitution, a document ratified after Reconstruction to marginalize blacks and keep political power in the hands of a few legislators. This constitution, like similar ones in states across the segregated South, created a powerful legislative branch with much weaker executive and judicial branch checks on legislative power.

Governors, then as now, tended to have limited power. Under that constitution, which has been amended more than 300 times through the years, governors appointed some cabinet officials, served as head of the state National Guard, could pardon prisoners, commute death sentences, call the General Assembly into special session and use the line-item veto on appropriations bills.

In the years since the drafting of the 1895 constitution, the power of the governor to appoint cabinet heads has increased, but a governor's ability to call the General Assembly into special session has been given an end run by legislators. Now instead of ending a session in June, lawmakers simply "adjourn" so that their officers, not a governor, can call them back to Columbia.

Nevertheless, what has changed dramatically throughout the years is the time that governors serve.

The original 1895 constitution called for governors to serve no more than two consecutive two-year terms. From 1897 to 1927, the state had 10 different governors including William Ellerbe, a Marion planter who died in office in his second term at age 37. He was succeeded by Miles McSweeney, a Charleston native who eventually published a Hampton County newspaper. During McSweeney's time as governor, his lieutenant governor, James H. Tillman, shot and killed N.G. Gonzales, editor of The State newspaper. Clearly, it was a tough time to be in public service.

In 1915, Charles Aurelius Smith became governor -- for only five days. He filled the term left vacant when race-baiting Gov. Cole Blease resigned because he didn't want to attend the gubernatorial swearing in of Richard Manning III. Smith died in 1916, just a few months after his record of serving the shortest time as the state's governor.

Another short-timer was Wilson Harvey, a former Charleston mayor who served less than eight months in 1921-22 after his predecessor resigned to become a member of the federal Farm Loan Board.

In 1926, the constitution was amended to allow governors to serve one four-year term. Between 1927 and 1978, the state had 16 different governors, including Olin D. Johnston who served two separate stints as governor, from 1935 to 1939 and then from 1943 to 1945, when he went to the U.S. Senate.

Because governors had the bully pulpit for a longer time without having to run after two years, they started getting known for enacting broader programs. Johnston, for example, made a lot of inroads for mill workers and in improving working conditions. Fritz Hollings (1959-63) fathered the state's now-renowned technical education system, recruited industries and put muscle behind the state's public TV network.

Then in the mid-1970s, the state constitution again was changed to give a governor the chance to run for a second four-year term and, in turn, make more lasting impacts on the state. Richard W. Riley, the first governor in the state's history to serve for eight years, pumped leadership into improving education. His successor, Carroll Campbell, focused on building economic opportunities and bolstering the Republican party, forever changing the state's politics.

Nikki Haley is South Carolina's 116th governor since 1670 when William Sayle was appointed governor by the Lords Proprietor. She's the fifth since Riley to try to get a second term. But just as Jim Hodges stood in the way of David Beasley getting a second term in 1998, Vincent Sheheen is now trying to become the Palmetto State's 117th governor.

Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report.  He can be reached at:  brack@statehousereport.com.

• 7/10: Is it fair to all concerned?
  
• 7/3: Civil rights act was milestone; more work needed
  
• 6/27: Robocall ruling will allow for more invasion of privacy
  
• 6/20:  Ervin may have Perot effect
• MORE BRACK:  See our archives
• FEEDBACK:  feedback@statehousereport.com

Friedrich Hayek, a Nobel-Prize-Winning economist, might have

To put it another way: looking at the effects of corruption while passing over corruption itself accepts the premise that if the effects of corruption are good, then corruption itself is good. It would be like deciding whether killing another person is good or bad by debating the merits of overpopulation. The first question should be, “Is killing right?” not “Does killing get the job done?” Similarly, we shouldn’t first ask, “Does corruption help or hinder society?” but rather, “Is corruption right?” In that sense, the fight against corruption is more a social issue than an economic one, and, unlike most social issues, we can all agree that the answer to that last question is “No.”

Jonkers, a student at Baylor University, is a summer research fellow at the S.C. Policy Council.

Burns. Recently-appointed Ethics Commission Chairman James Burns needs to get off his kick about telling commission employees to clam up. His directive is exactly the opposite of what the watchdog agency is supposed to stand for.